Indiana hasn’t gone to a Democrat since Johnson in 1964. It hasn’t mattered in candidate selection in past presidential years because of the date of its primary. But we all know 2008 is unlike any past presidential election year in modern times.
Last night’s results in the Democratic contest in Mississippi only reemphasize the sentiments that have been discussed since the Texas/Ohio behemoth of a political contest–
Congrats Indiana - you matter!
Since Senator Obama did not give a knock out blow to Senator Clinton’s campaign on March 4 and since Obama bounced back from the Clinton victory in the Ohio and Texas primaries with a delayed caucus victory in Texas and wins in Wyoming and Mississippi the horserace for momentum is stalled.
Technically speaking Obama is ahead – by all measures, he is winning in delegates and overall popular vote. There are, however major races left.
The April 22 Pennsylvania primary offers 158 pledged delegates. The May 6 North Carolina and Indiana primaries offer 115 and 72 delegates respectively. Although there are some smaller primaries left after the aforementioned (28 in West Virginia, 51 in Kentucky, 52 in Oregon, 55 in Puerto Rico, 16 in Montana and 16 in South Dakota) the last large chunk of delegates will be in North Carolina and Indiana.
Even though the May 6 primaries are months away and even though there is a much bigger primary before those held on May 6, both campaigns are on the ground in Indiana. In the next few weeks I would expect to see more signs of Obama and Clinton in the state. Look for offices to pop up in the major cities, events scheduled for the state and canvassers exploring both urban and rural Indiana in search of voters.
Its hard to gauge how Indiana will go in the Democratic primary. Anyone who says they know definitively is an idiot, because we’ve seen primaries and caucuses go either way all the way through the Democratic campaign season.
Going into the Indiana primary, Clinton has some institutional advantages Obama does not. As Indiana Senator Evan Bayh is arguably the Democrat in the state with the most clout and as he is a long time Clinton supporter, it will be difficult for some Democrats to break ranks and support Obama publicly.Breaking ranks could prove enticing for some congressmen, as Obama campaigned for many of them in 2006 and many of their districts receive media from Obama’s home state. It nonetheless makes sense that since the highest elected Democrat in the state supports the other candidate they will most likely remain silent, at least for the immediate future.
Obama has proven time and time again that institutional support does not necessarily translate into big victories. He has an uncanny ability to build a strong network in a limited amount of time outside the normal parameters of state politics. His decided monetary advantage could prove useful in terms of advertising purchases and staff.
The Indiana primary is still a ways away, but everything’s about to get started soon. We will keep you posted throughout the campaign season to see just what role the Hoosier state will play in selecting the Democratic nominee for president.
Tags: candidate, Congress, Democrats, evan bayh, hoosier, obama, popular vote, president, presidential election, tution
