Political Equinox

For the Democrats, Super Tuesday was a bag of mixed nuts.

One would have assumed that with the exit of John Edwards his supporters would shift one way or another. One would have assumed that since what seemed like every state was up for grabs, one of the two remaining candidates would take charge and become the presumptive nominee. One would even assume that if one candidate won major states over the other candidate that candidate would be finished.

Welp, if one assumed all or even any of that, one would assume wrong.

The fact was that Hillary won the biggies – New York, California and even some of the upsetties (doesn’t work as well) - namely Massachusetts and New Jersey. Obama, however, won more states than Hillary. Once one irons the delegate count out (which, for all intents and purposes is the only measurement that really matters) and factoring in the superdelegates, Obama and Hillary are back to where they were just before Super Duper Tuesday – a dead heat.

Now, its back to grinding it out state by state. There is Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington and the Virgin Islands on February 9 and Maryland, Virginia and DC on February 12. The next big group is March 4 with the big states like Ohio, Texas and smaller states like Vermont and Rhode Island.

This long term strategy favors the one that has an infrastructure of support across the country and the ability to raise large amounts of cash quickly.

Senator Obama can do both of these things. Last month, Obama raised $32 million – an absolutely insane amount of money, never before seen in a primary election month. Hillary by contrast, raised $13.5 million – not a bad amount in normal circumstances, but paltry when taken in comparison to Senator Obama.

Furthermore Senator Clinton now is infusing $5 million of her own personal wealth into the campaign. Again, in a normal situation not a bad idea. However, this only highlights the fact that Senator Obama has a broad national appeal with fiscal resources to put people on the ground, ads on TV and mail pieces in voters’ hands in a myriad of states. With financial tightening, Clinton may have to start picking her battles more selectively, whereas Obama can probably compete in every state.

I am not sure how this will all turn out. If Edwards officially drops out (his campaign is as of now ‘suspended) and comes out and endorses a candidate he could drastically improve the outlook of one of the other two, giving one an edge over another.

My hopes are that Obama will prevail. Unlike my cousin, friend and Republican counterpart, however, I am confident in both of the remaining candidates in the Democratic Party.

But as the board stands right now, I can’t really make any definitive assumptions.

Tags: candidate, Democrats, financial, John Edwards, money, obama, republican, strategy